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高市在總裁選演說中,以「我是奈良的女人,在大和之國長大」開場,彰顯自己出身於奈良縣。與自民黨內常見的「二世」或「三世」議員不同,成長來自雙薪上班族家庭。就讀神戶大學時,曾在重金屬樂團擔任鼓手。

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不過,林由香話鋒一轉:「目前正值自民黨內局勢艱難之際,我認為她可能會把重點放在黨內團結上,並在外交政策上謹慎行事,避免採取過於保守或強硬的立場。」

高市的政治立場屬於保守強硬派。強硬主張維持父系男子的皇位繼承制,並計畫以「早苗經濟學」之名,繼承安倍經濟學的積極財政與貨幣寬鬆政策。為了獲得安倍擁護者的支持,她在去年的自民黨總裁選舉中曾公開承諾「即使當上首相,也會去參拜靖國神社」,但此次表現出了模棱兩可的態度。她尊敬的人物,是英國前首相柴契爾夫人。

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此次選舉背景下,一個名為「參政黨」的新政黨正在崛起。它與其他民粹主義運動如出一轍,把移民稱作「一場無聲的入侵」,並把各種社會問題歸咎於外來人口。

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在總裁選舉期間,齋藤曾表示:“如果候選人不符合我們保守中道路線的理念,我們無法組成聯合政權。”

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不過,作為聯合執政黨的公明黨代表齊藤鐵夫,在自民黨總裁選舉前曾表示「若是不符合保守中間路線理念的人當選,將無法與之組建聯合政權」,隱約透露出與高市之間存在的距離感。若高市執政,如何擴大聯合執政框架將是一個重大課題,但目前尚看不到她在日本維新會和國民民主黨方面的人脈管道。

總之高市早苗的政治立場明顯偏右,她在歷史認知與國家安全問題上態度強硬,然而,歷史經驗表明,日本首相在上任後往往會在現實外交壓力下調整立場。正如安倍晉三在第二任期內逐漸從“修憲先鋒”、“保守的歷史觀”轉向務實外交,推進與中韓的友好關係一樣,高市早苗在就任後,預計也將暫時擱置部分意識形態等議題,以維持與中韓等近鄰國家的基本關係穩定,從她上面的一些發言來看,已經表現出了一定的靈活性。

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